In seinem jährlichen Bericht zur schweizerischen Geld- und Wirtschaftspolitik geht der Währungsfonds u.a. auch auf die anstehende Sozialversicherungsreform ein und empfiehlt unter dem Titel eines QE (quantitative easing) den Erwerb von ausländischen Vermögenswerten zur Abschwächung des Frankens. Zur Reform der Altersvorsorge heisst es in der Zusammenfassung des Berichts:
Pension reforms will help address longer-term fiscal challenges. Population aging is projected to substantially increase fiscal costs related to pensions and healthcare over the longer run. To help address this challenge, the government has proposed a comprehensive pension reform, including measures to equalize retirement ages for men and women and to reduce the rate at which pension savings are converted into pension annuities. Such reforms will help ensure the sustainability of the social safety net and its continued availability for future generations.
Zum BVG-Mindestzins fordert der IMF:
Continue to monitor closely the possible effects on the financial sector of the recent exchange rate appreciation and low interest-rate environment. The second factor is particularly important for life insurers and defined-benefit pension plans. To ensure the sustainability of the latter, the minimum rate of return (currently 1¾ percent) that applies to some plans and that is established by the government should be reduced to bring it into line with market rates.
Zur Währungspolitik wird empfohlen:
Further monetary easing would support adjustment. Easing would help limit the near-term growth slowdown and lessen exchange rate overvaluation. Boosting inflation closer to 2 percent over the medium term would also reduce risks associated with operating in a low-inflation environment.
Monetary easing could perhaps be achieved via a program of pre-announced asset purchases. Such purchases could consist of foreign-currency assets—and perhaps some domestic assets, though scope for this is more limited—with the pace of purchases adjusted as necessary in response to developments. In addition, the policy rate should be maintained at its current negative level for now, as this has been helpful in reducing franc appreciation and deflationary pressures. Central bank communication should also be geared toward ensuring that inflation expectations do not become entrenched at low levels. As the balance sheet of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is likely to remain large for a prolonged period with large fluctuations in mark-to-market profits, the SNB should also prioritize provisioning over transfers to its distribution reserve to help ensure that its capital remains in line with risks.
Bericht IMF / Artikel NZZ / Kommentar NZZ